From: owner-skunk-works-digest@netwrx1.com (skunk-works-digest) To: skunk-works-digest@netwrx1.com Subject: skunk-works-digest V9 #38 Reply-To: skunk-works@netwrx1.com Sender: owner-skunk-works-digest@netwrx1.com Errors-To: owner-skunk-works-digest@netwrx1.com Precedence: bulk skunk-works-digest Thursday, May 25 2000 Volume 09 : Number 038 Index of this digest by subject: *************************************************** Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Re: PCL Fwd: Jane's News Briefs 24 May 2000 *************************************************** ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 06:13:42 -0700 From: patrick Subject: Re: PCL At 11:51 PM 05/19/2000 -0700, you wrote:
Just in case you didn't have it yet
http://silentsentry.external.lmco.com/proj/nonsecure/sentry/SShome.htm

Timothy

It seems like this is the latest fad defense against Stealth aircraft as some want us to believe.  There is every bit of evidence to prove the theory is quite workable.  Multipath interference used to be a real irritating problem on earlier car radios when tuned to an FM station.  And they simply process this data to extrapolate the aircraft's location.

But I think we are assuming these somewhat non-directional signals (commercial FM and TV stations only. I think AM stations don't work due to their type of signal modulation) are able to reach out and generate a reflection off of a Stealth aircraft and then return it via another non-directional antenna at
will.

Keep in mind these Stealth aircraft are able to fly relatively closer to air defense radars  while looking right down the bore of  very directional antennas attached to some sophisticated equipment.  And the reason is they have a very low RCS.

So in looking at the sales pitch Lockheed has posted on the Web for their "Silent Sentry" system (and didn't you think it odd that they tout this thing and also profess the ability of their F-117?) I found some information in the fine print that may put this in proper perspective.  And keep in mind they do want to sell some of these "low cost, simple systems" as that is what they do.

In the specs for Silent Sentry they list the detection range to equal 220 kilometers with an asterisk to the following note:

" Value based upon an RCS=10 m2 @ 100 MHz......"

The RCS for this exercise must be a minimum of 10 square meters.

I wonder what the system is rated at when the RCS is measured at less than one square meter? 

patrick cullumber

------------------------------ Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 09:11:12 -0700 From: Timothy Toth Subject: Re: PCL > In the specs for Silent Sentry they list the detection range to equal > 220 kilometers with an asterisk to the following note: > > " Value based upon an RCS=10 m2 @ 100 MHz......" > > The RCS for this exercise must be a minimum of 10 square meters. > > I wonder what the system is rated at when the RCS is measured at less > than one square meter? > > patrick cullumber According to Prof. A. B. Fuhs's formula if you consider this as a search radar, it would be about 70km against a 1sq.m target, and about 22km against a 0.1sq.m target. (reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.5 for a search radar (reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.75 for an airborne search radar (reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.25 for a tracking radar Timothy ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 14:07:45 -0500 From: "Allen Thomson" Subject: Re: PCL Timothy Toth said, > > In the specs for Silent Sentry they list the detection range to equal > > 220 kilometers with an asterisk to the following note: > > > > " Value based upon an RCS=10 m2 @ 100 MHz......" > > > > The RCS for this exercise must be a minimum of 10 square meters. > > > > I wonder what the system is rated at when the RCS is measured at less > > than one square meter? > > > > patrick cullumber > > According to Prof. A. B. Fuhs's formula if you consider this as a search > radar, it would be about 70km against a 1sq.m target, and about 22km > against a 0.1sq.m target. Presumably you refer to Fuhs' "Radar Cross Section Lectures," ISBN 0915928884, which is indeed an excellent reference that everyone here should run out and get. However, Fuhs is mostly concerned with monostatic radars, and, except in some really perverse cases, monostatic is just what PCL isn't. One should read Fuhs' monograph together with the equally excellent "Bistatic Radar" by Nicholas Willis, ISBN 089006427X, to get a better handle on the counter-stealth potential of PCL. There's also "Fundamentals of Multisite Radar Systems : Multistatic Radars and Multiradar Systems" by V. S. Chernyak, ISBN 9056991655, but I haven't looked at it in enough detail to have an opinion about it. Also, as you mentioned earlier, PCL depends heavily on Doppler processing to derive not only velocities but positions, kind of analogous to ISAR techniques. All in all, PCL theory is quite a bit different than one encounters in standard radar, and care needs to be taken when evaluating what can and can't be done. ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 20:51:19 -0700 From: patrick Subject: Re: PCL At 09:11 AM 05/20/2000 -0700, you wrote: > > In the specs for Silent Sentry they list the detection range to equal > > 220 kilometers with an asterisk to the following note: > > > > " Value based upon an RCS=10 m2 @ 100 MHz......" > > > > The RCS for this exercise must be a minimum of 10 square meters. > > > > I wonder what the system is rated at when the RCS is measured at less > > than one square meter? > > > > patrick cullumber > >According to Prof. A. B. Fuhs's formula if you consider this as a search >radar, it would be about 70km against a 1sq.m target, and about 22km >against a 0.1sq.m target. > >(reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.5 for a search radar >(reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.75 for an airborne search radar >(reduced RCS/initial RCS) root 0.25 for a tracking radar > >Timothy Actually these numbers support my contention that a Stealth aircraft, okay lets call it an F-117, would be very difficult to track with Silent Sentry. One must realize search radars use highly directional antenna that show forward gain of 10db or greater. A non directional antenna shows no gain or 0 db (a logarithmic function). Some FM stations do direct their signals but certainly no more than 3 or 4 db gain. And of course similar efficiencies exist during reception of the reflected siganls. The Silent Sentry is required to use a much lower gain non directional antenna due to its requirements. If so the effective range becomes much less than "root 0.5". And also consider that this new system requires a minimum of two signals, each from a separate location/transmitter, to be able to pinpoint an aircraft. So now the possibility exists that the aircraft is reflecting only one signal of sufficient strength. In which case the operators may have just enough time then to strap on helmets and dive under their operating consoles. Bottom line is I believe search/tracking radars to be inherently much more capable against any aircraft. The Stealth factor only decreases either systems effectiveness. And.....no one has yet shown any evidence the Tamara system had anything to do with the downing of 806 in Yugoslavia. Thanks Tim, patrick cullumber ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 08:33:02 -0500 From: "Allen Thomson" Subject: Re: PCL - ----- Original Message ----- From: "patrick" > Bottom line is I believe search/tracking radars to be inherently much more > capable against any aircraft. The Stealth factor only decreases either > systems effectiveness. The complicating factor in this is that "rcs" isn't the scalar quantity (actually, it's a tensor) many people assume, since it varies dramatically with the orientation of the aircraft wrt both the radar transmitter and receiver. And it's this variation that bistatic/multistatic concepts try to exploit. You are quite right, though, that the real-world effectiveness of multistatic systems is difficult to evaluate due to the complexity of the scattering and encounter geometries. Probably the best way to get a handle on the situation is to go out and do experiments, and I trust the USAF has done that. > And.....no one has yet shown any evidence the > Tamara system had anything to do with the downing of 806 in Yugoslavia. Tamara, though capable of interconnecting several sites together in a "multistatic" way, isn't any kind or radar, let alone PCL. It's a suite of ESM equipment optimized for air defense applications, and depends on emissions from the target aircraft. There was some speculation a few years ago that it might be able to exploit TV and other signals reflected from aircraft, but there's no evidence for that that I know of. If you have information that the system can exploit such signals, I'd greatly appreciate knowing about it. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 08:38:53 -0700 From: Timothy Toth Subject: Re: PCL Allen Thomson wrote: > Timothy Toth said, > > > > In the specs for Silent Sentry they list the detection range to equal > > > 220 kilometers with an asterisk to the following note: > > > > > > " Value based upon an RCS=10 m2 @ 100 MHz......" > > > > > > The RCS for this exercise must be a minimum of 10 square meters. > > > > > > I wonder what the system is rated at when the RCS is measured at less > > > than one square meter? > > > > > > patrick cullumber > > > > According to Prof. A. B. Fuhs's formula if you consider this as a search > > radar, it would be about 70km against a 1sq.m target, and about 22km > > against a 0.1sq.m target. > > Presumably you refer to Fuhs' "Radar Cross Section Lectures," ISBN > 0915928884, which is indeed an excellent reference that everyone here should > run out and get. However, Fuhs is mostly concerned with monostatic radars, > and, except in some really perverse cases, monostatic is just what PCL > isn't. > > One should read Fuhs' monograph together with the equally excellent > "Bistatic Radar" by Nicholas Willis, ISBN 089006427X, to get a better handle > on the counter-stealth potential of PCL. There's also "Fundamentals of > Multisite Radar Systems : Multistatic Radars and Multiradar Systems" by V. > S. Chernyak, ISBN 9056991655, but I haven't looked at it in enough detail to > have an opinion about it. > > Also, as you mentioned earlier, PCL depends heavily on Doppler processing to > derive not only velocities but positions, kind of analogous to ISAR > techniques. All in all, PCL theory is quite a bit different than one > encounters in standard radar, and care needs to be taken when evaluating > what can and can't be done. Agreed and even though the only way( so far) to get a good answer is to make tests. I can't help but try. :-) Unfortunatly I haven't layed my hands on any of Fuhs's writings, and have only read second hand's account (I have no enginneering background, so I'm not sure I could follow Fuhs anyway). Does anything in what you read suggest that RAM or RAS would be less effective against multistatic radars? I imagine only shapping is affected. If this is the case one has to look at the overall RCS as opposed to the frontal RCS (usually not far from the lowest RCS) normally given for aircraft. This means that aircraft like the F-117 or B-2, suposed to have a good overall RCS would perform much better against multistatic systems than a Rafale, F/A-18E/F or Typhoon. However the wavlength used would certainly affect the effectivness of shaping, 220km was given for 100MHz and the system can work from 50 to 800Mhz. I'm not sure there would be a significant difference between 100Mhz and 50Mhz for a target the size (not the RCS, which is different of course!) of a F-117. Of course stealth and counter stealth all capitalise on 'little' advantages here and there that when put together give you the advantage, so even if a multistatic radar has only marginal effect on stealth, but this is combined with low wavelength and very powerfull processors, like say a... Silent sentry, then... I also think one should not forget the importance of high performance processors for such systems. Indeed a lot of radar systems have had their 'anti-stealth' capabilities ugraded just because they have more powerfull processors. It seems that when using older systems to detect stealth targets, the crew performed better at analysing returns from their radar than the computer did. More powerfull processors mean more info can be substracted from the same systems, lower false alarm rates but also less echoes disregarded as 'ghosts, or false targets'. This also means a faster response time which is important when working against stealth who often try and get into your minimum range or even out of town before you realise what's going on. Another question is how would a system with multiple receivers perform against stealth. I think they have what is needed to fuse the data in almost real time. Timothy ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 10:18:51 -0700 From: patrick Subject: Re: PCL At 08:33 AM 05/21/2000 -0500, you wrote: >----- Original Message ----- >From: "patrick" > > > Bottom line is I believe search/tracking radars to be inherently much more > > capable against any aircraft. The Stealth factor only decreases either > > systems effectiveness. > >The complicating factor in this is that "rcs" isn't the scalar quantity >(actually, it's a tensor) many people assume, since it varies dramatically >with the orientation of the aircraft wrt both the radar transmitter and >receiver. And it's this variation that bistatic/multistatic concepts try to >exploit. You are quite right, though, that the real-world effectiveness of >multistatic systems is difficult to evaluate due to the complexity of the >scattering and encounter geometries. Probably the best way to get a handle >on the situation is to go out and do experiments, and I trust the USAF has >done that. Good point. Without sounding too redundant, the airframe is simple a reflecting antenna in the "eyes" of a tracking system. The F-117 RAM does attenuate some of the signal strength by converting RF energy into heat by the use of ferrite. I suspect the major effect of stealthiness is derived from its angular surfaces. These being designed to reflect RF energy away rather than toward the tracking receiver. The rcs of this plane is an average number based on several factors. Different frequency wavelengths will react differently with different individual facets of the airframe. But in all probability the dimensions were not designed to tune out a particular resonant frequency. The rcs can be measured for a particular frequency and for a particular orientation of the aircraft in relation to the angle of the incident signal. It would seem they know what the individual rcs is for a combination of different factors and what the average rcs is going to be when the plane is actually flown against a real time threat. All of this being a de facto result of the total design of the aircraft. And the numbers evidently are low enough to convince someone to build and fly the airplane. And if the Tamara system requires use of RF emissions originating from the aircraft then it would be useless against the F-117. Even the IFF transponder is turned off over the battlefield. patrick cullumber ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 13:15:31 -0500 From: "Allen Thomson" Subject: Re: PCL - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Timothy Toth" > Unfortunatly I haven't layed my hands on any of Fuhs's writings, and have only > read second hand's account (I have no enginneering background, so I'm not sure I > could follow Fuhs anyway). You should see if your library can get a copy of his "Radar Cross Section Lectures" (sub-titled "The No-See-Um Book). It does have equations -- even a few integrals and matrices -- but it also has many helpful figures, and I think you'd find it useful. A lot of stealth stuff is, for good or bad, quite understandable on a qualitative basis. > Does anything in what you read suggest that RAM or RAS would be less effective > against multistatic radars? No, as in the monostatic case, you'd have to understand what you're doing, but I don't see that the staticness of the radars much changes the relative importance of geometry and RAM. But, never having been a stealth designer myself, nor even pretended to be one on the Net, I could be wrong. > I imagine only shapping is affected. If this is the case one has to look at the > overall RCS as opposed to the frontal RCS (usually not far from the lowest RCS) > normally given for aircraft. This means that aircraft like the F-117 or B-2, > suposed to have a good overall RCS would perform much better against multistatic > systems than a Rafale, F/A-18E/F or Typhoon. Yes, although I think that's particularly likely to be true of the B-2. The F-117 looks to have bistatic hot spots, though whether those can be exploited in the real world is open to question. > However the wavlength used would certainly affect the effectivness of shaping, > 220km was given for 100MHz and the system can work from 50 to 800Mhz. I'm not > sure there would be a significant difference between 100Mhz and 50Mhz for a > target the size (not the RCS, which is different of course!) of a F-117. It's useful to think in terms of wavelengths rather than frequencies when contemplating such issues. Wavelength = speed of light / frequency or, in meters, wavelength = 3e8/Hz; so 100 MHz corresponds to 3e8/1e8 = 3 meters. This is certainly comparable to a facet size on the F-117, and indicates that geometric stealth designed for higher frequency radars may not be as effective at such low frequencies. It also gets into the range where diffractive effects, such exotica as "creeping waves" and so on are important, and those are very complex to analyze. Again, I'd be happier having a lot of real-world data to look at, rather than just lots of modeling. BTW, sort of along the "Great Unity of Nature" line, there's an excellent book from 1957(!) that helps to understand much of what we're talking about in the diffractive regime. It's H.C. van de Hulst's "Light Scattering by Small Particles," ISBN 0486642283. Scale up light to radar and small particles to airplanes, any you've got a protostealth text. Available, last I checked, from Dover, cheap. > I also think one should not forget the importance of high performance processors > for such systems. Indeed a lot of radar systems have had their 'anti-stealth' > capabilities ugraded just because they have more powerfull processors. Yes, this is very important, and part of the reason Silent Sentry works as well as it does. Note that "processors" probably means the increasingly ubiquitous DSP chips as least as much as it does Pentia and the like. > Another question is how would a system with multiple receivers perform against > stealth. I think they have what is needed to fuse the data in almost real time. Eek! You mean that ever more powerful processing and communications technologies could be significant? Perish the thought! ;-) ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 14:08:48 -0500 From: "Allen Thomson" Subject: Re: PCL > And if the Tamara system requires use of RF emissions originating from the > aircraft then it would be useless against the F-117. Even the IFF > transponder is turned off over the battlefield. > > patrick cullumber True. Unless there's something about the operation of the F-117 that requires that it emit (a radar altimeter seems the best guess, though even that seems unlikely), Tamara as an ESM system would seem to be pretty useless against it. Some sort of bistatic radar upgrade might be a possibility, but that's pretty speculative. ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 25 May 2000 10:32:45 PDT From: "wayne binkley" Subject: Fwd: Jane's News Briefs 24 May 2000 most every one has heard of"Janes"(all the worlds etc)but may not be aware that they have a free news brief via email.if interested read on. if not utilize"DELETE" function now. wayne. - ----Original Message Follows---- From: owner-jig-air@freud.thomson.com Subject: Jane's News Briefs 24 May 2000 Date: Wed, 24 May 2000 11:59:31 -0400 (EDT) Welcome to Jane's News Briefs Apologies for the previous message! IMPORTANT NOTICE: Next week the Jane's Web site - http://www.janes.com will be taking on a brand new look (see more on this below) and to reflect this, the News Briefs layout will be changing. You will still receive the very latest headlines and news being published by Jane's, but now you will receive more news, more analysis and more depth. Remember if you think your colleagues would like the free News Briefs service tell them to visit http://www.janes.com and sign up straight away. For more information about Jane's News Briefs, visit our Web site: http://www.janes.com or e-mail your nearest Jane's office - details at the end of this newsletter. =================================================================== Are you aware that you can access FREE complete articles from across Jane’s portfolio at www.janes.com? Plus, a comprehensive archive to support your own research, including previous newsbriefs? Janes.com is getting even better, so you’ll be able to access even more FREE articles, more frequently updated. Even more news. Even more updates. Even more vital To try the NEW, IMPROVED janes.com, visit www.janes.com on 30th May, where all will be revealed... =================================================================== Headline news for week ending May 26, 2000 **************************************************************** Contents for this week: DEFENCE: Jane's Defence Weekly (10 stories) SECURITY Jane's Foreign Report (6 stories) Jane's Intelligence Review (10 stories) Jane's Intelligence Digest (3 stories) Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor (10 stories) TRANSPORT: Jane's Airport Review (2 stories) Jane's World Airlines (6 stories) Jane's Urban Transport Systems (6 stories) BUSINESS Jane's Defence Industry (2 Stories) Jane's Contact Details **************************************************************** //=================================================================\\ Advertisement Metalite, lighting the airfields of the US Marines Expeditionary Forces. UK based Metalite Aviation Lighting are currently supplying the US Marine Corps with a portable, tactical airfield lighting system designed to perform a major role in the operation of their expeditionary airfields. Visit http://www.janes.com/metaliteaviation/ for more information Phone: +44 (0)121 360 2222 email: info@metaliteaviation.com \\=================================================================// ********************************************** DEFENCE Website: http://defence.janes.com ********************************************** - ---------------------------------------------- Jane's Defence Weekly Read more with images at: http://jdw.janes.com Vol 33 No 21 24 May 2000 - ---------------------------------------------- UK $7.7b purchase plan creates political balance The UK government has announced the selection of the European-built Meteor Beyond-Visual-Range Air-to-Air Missile for UK Royal Air Force Eurofighter multirole combat aircraft and a mix of Boeing C-17 and Airbus Military Company A400M transport aircraft under a £5 billion ($7.7 billion) procurement package. Belgium details 15-year plan for reorganisation The Belgian cabinet has approved a sweeping reorganisation of its armed forces intended to enhance Belgium's ability to project forces capable of operating across the full spectrum of military operations in concert with NATO and EU allies. White paper released on USAF future A new US Air Force (USAF) white paper outlining the service's vision of itself in the future as an aerospace force has painted a picture of manned and unmanned aircraft as well as satellites operating together to "engage any object of military significance on or above the surface of the Earth in near real time". EH 101 completes first US tour The joint Anglo-Italian EH Industries EH 101 medium-lift, multirole helicopter completes its first tour in the USA this week after nearly a month of efforts to convince American defence and industry officials that the European rotorcraft can meet several outstanding US military requirements. Bofors working on unique air-defence system Sweden's Bofors Weapon Systems has revealed that for some years it has been studying a new modular air-defence concept under contract to the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration. UK looks at options on nuclear waste storage The UK government last week announced proposals for the land-based storage of intermediate and low-level radioactive waste from decommissioned Royal Navy nuclear-powered submarines. Indian delays Army MBTs The Indian Army's planned purchase of around 300 Russian T-90S main battle tanks (MBTs) has suffered a setback after the all-party Standing Committee on Defence questioned the lack of transparency in the deal worth over Rs 50 billion ($1.1 billion). USA warms to new military ties with Indonesia Authorities in the USA have reached an internal consensus on the resumption of military ties with Indonesia, sources in Washington have said. Another ATGW for Iran The Aerospace Industries Organisation of Iran has revealed it is manufacturing a long-range anti-tank guided weapon (ATGW) called Toophan. It looks similar to the US Raytheon Systems Company Tube-launched Optically-tracked Wire-guided ATGW that entered service with Iran over 25 years ago. Boeing develops plan for frontline part manufacture The Boeing Company's advanced concepts division, the Phantom Works, is moving forward with a revolutionary logistics scheme that could soon see military aircraft spare parts being 'built to print' at forward airbases using design data from original manufacturers. ***************************** SECURITY ***************************** - ---------------------------------------------- Jane's Foreign Report Read more at: http://www.foreignreport.com Issue 2593 25 May 2000 - ---------------------------------------------- Disaster in Sri Lanka If the Tamil Tigers win, horror may follow victory THE 17-year civil war in Sri Lanka between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil Tigers, who want to carve out a homeland for the Tamil minority, is now reaching a crucial point. Sri Lanka's army has basically melted away, especially around Jaffna, the town the Tigers like to see as the capital of their state. Large numbers of Sri Lankan soldiers are trapped in the town, and face possible defeat. And, if the defeat comes, it will be one which will have profound effects on India itself. Outwardly, India's government remains calm. In private, however, Indian officials are deeply worried. Iran after the election IRAN's newly elected parliament will assemble on May 27th following two rounds of voting in a general election that gave the moderates a comfortable majority which they will use to implement more reforms by President Muhammad Khatami. The 290-member parliament has 200 moderates, 42 conservatives and 30 independents. The remaining seats will be contested in October. The conservatives challenged the results in some districts and accused the authorities of forgery, especially in Tehran, where the moderates won 27 out of 30 seats. The former Speaker and president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, was re-elected in Tehran. What next? A hermit with debts THOSE governments and banks which lent money to North Korea, the 'hermit state', in the 1970s, can say good-bye to it. As of 1998, South Korea's National Intelligence Service reckoned that these lenders were owed in the region of $11.9 billion President Fox? VICENTE FOX's campaign to win Mexico's presidential election on July 2nd has gained momentum and, for the first time in more than 70 years, it looks as if the days in power of the misnamed Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are almost over. Early election in Israel? As FOREIGN REPORT went to press, Israeli forces began to withdraw from the Israeli-controlled 'security zone' in south Lebanon ahead of schedule, as we predicted. They had no prior agreement guaranteeing that Israeli soldiers would be allowed to leave peacefully and would not be attacked and humiliated by Hezbollah Lebanese guerrillas. Poverty in Latin America THE widely held view that years of economic reforms have not made a dent in Latin America's wretched poverty is challenged in a little noticed report by the UN's respected Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). - ---------------------------------------------- Jane's Intelligence Review Read more at: http://jir.janes.com June 2000 - ---------------------------------------------- Anti-Syrian sentiments grow in Lebanon By Riad Kahwaji Syrian forces in Lebanon recently withdrew from several positions in and around Beirut and other cities in the country as anti-Syrian sentiments were reported to be growing among the Lebanese population. Ex-UCK commanders between politics and violence By Zoran Kusovac Politics seems to be taking its toll on former top commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (Ushtria Clirimtare e Kosoves - UCK), which was disbanded last September. Putin's network of spies Although no obstacle to his victory in Russia's presidential elections, evidence suggests that Vladimir Putin's KGB past may not be far below the surface. Dr Mark Galeotti examines the infiltration of the Russian security apparatus into Putin's administration. Presevo: the next Kosovo? A rising insurgency in Serbia's Albanian-dominated Presevo valley threatens another large-scale Serb-Albanian conflict on KFOR's doorstep. John Schindler reports on the struggle to liberate 'Eastern Kosovo'. Centrifugal forces stir in Indonesia Indonesia's President Wahid is struggling to create a sense of unity between the 13,677 islands over which he presides. Bertil Lintner reports. India's never-ending ethnic insurgencies While the insurgents in the neglected north-eastern states of India continue their fight for independent homelands, the Indian government seems ill-equipped to address their grievances. Rahul Bedi reports. Korean peninsula: still the most dangerous The announcement of talks, to be held this month between the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, was widely praised. How much progress should really be expected? G Jacobs reports. DSL: serving states and multinationals As multinational companies come face-to-face with violent regimes, the services of private security companies are increasingly in demand. Yves Goulet reports on the role of Defence Systems Limited (DSL). Global developments in the ASCM threat As naval operations shift to the littoral, so the threat posed by anti-ship cruise missiles is causing concern among Western navies. Richard Scott examines the implications of technology trends and missile proliferation. Colombia: why doesn't the war end? Successive governments in Colombia have sought alternately to militarily defeat the guerrillas, bring them to the negotiating table and detach them from the narcos. Amnesties have been offered, peace proposals made and new ideas put forward. None of these strategies have worked. Hal Klepak explains why peace remains elusive. - -------------------------- Jane's Intelligence Digest 26 May - 2 June 2000 - -------------------------- Sharp deterioration in Turkey/Iran relations Following the successive electoral triumphs of the reformists in Iran (in the May 1997 election of President Mohammad Khatami, in the February 1999 local elections, and in the February 2000 landslide parliamentary victory) there has been a growing expectation in the West that Tehran will modify its anti-Western foreign policy and its support for terrorism. When assessing what is happening in Iran, it is usually worth listening to what Turkey has to say; and the news of the last few weeks has not been encouraging. Foreign policy in the US presidential campaign Foreign policy has not been much of an issue in recent US presidential politics. However, this year foreign policy could well play an important part in shaping the outcome of the race between Texas Governor George W Bush and Vice-President Al Gore, according to Intelligence Digest’s principal Washington observer. Will Hezbollah fight on? One of the most-pressing questions as Israel makes its undignified exit from south Lebanon is whether or not the Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group will continue to fight on against Israel once the withdrawal is complete. - ------------------------------------- Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor May 2000 - ------------------------------------- The tide of insurgency in South East Asia THE Philippine kidnapping crisis in which members of the radical Islamist group Abu Sayyaf are holding western hostages on the island of Jolo, is the latest and most dramatic in an accelerating series of challenges to the central government which has seen an outbreak of random violence across the southern territories of this archipelago state. It joins with separatist and sectarian violence in Indonesia and Malaysia to build up a picture of accelerating political turmoil in the region. Cults and weapons of mass destruction THE new millennium appears to highlight a resurgence in the phenomenon of the cult. Sebastyen Gorka of the RAND Institute outlines the level of threat they pose. Despite existing for as long as there have been charismatic and idiosyncratic leaders, the turn of the new century and the social tensions accompanying the move from agricultural economies to post-modern industrial state systems, have resulted in a flourishing growth of peculiar new movements. The Americas - ------------ Changing climate for the eco-warrior Eco-terrorism is gaining in strength yet its criminal impact has been underrated. Activists are getting bolder and a crackdown is imminent. Europe - ------ ETA swims against the tide The ETA has returned to the bomb and bullet and a new alliance has been forged with the Breton separatist movement. ETA’s political failure will only give impetus to extremist violence. Chechen struggle set to transform itself Russian reports of Chechen demise may be premature since military confrontation may transform into outright terrorist activity with an Islamist stamp. It may no longer remain a 'Russian' issue. Middle East - ----------- Saudi Arabia faces an insurgent future A secetarian crackdown has highlighted the loosening grasp of central control at a time when demographic and economic pressures are coming to the boil. Control of information is no longer an option and this will aid insurgency. Africa - ------ Nigeria mixing ingredients for another civil war Escalating insurgency places Nigeria’s existence in the balance. External factors are adding to the internal tensions and country is due for another military coup. Asia - ---- Deteriorating security environment in South Asia Ethnic and secetarian strife is turning southern Asia into a patchwork of conflicts and in the midst of which stands Bangladesh. The curious case of the cross-straits hacker war The Internet came of age when it became a tool for hostilities in a type of warfare where everyone could be a combatant. No doubt the authorities on either side learned valuable lessons. ******************************************************** TRANSPORT http://transport.janes.com ******************************************************** - ---------------------------------------------- Jane's Airport Review Read more with images at: http://jar.janes.com June 2000 - ---------------------------------------------- Growth marks competition Airline alliances pose a threat to French provincial airports By Luc Citrinot French airports enjoyed one of their best performances of the decade last year with 8% growth in passenger numbers. In total, France recorded 118.37 million passengers out of a European total of 912 million. However there is a trend towards major airlines could begin determining an airports future as well as threats from high speed rail links. Jane's Airport Review looks in depth at what is happening. Beijing rides market downturn An innovative financial deal offers a blueprint for the future By Jenny Beechener The Chinese government raised close to US$400 million from the sale of Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) in February this year, the first mainland airport to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The sale was unique in combining an international public offering (IPO) with the introduction of a strategic partner. - --------------------- Jane's World Airlines 22 May 2000 - --------------------- AIRTRAN HOLDINGS INC RECEIVES FINANCING FOR NEW AIRCRAFT Parent company of AirTran Airways, AirTran Holdings, Inc has received financing commitments for the next 20 Boeing 717 aircraft to be delivered to the airline between May 2000 and February 2002. AirTrans Airways currently operates 10 717s and has a further 40 of the type on order. Options for a further 50 aircraft have been re-scheduled for 2003-2005. AMERICA WEST APPOINTS VICE PRESIDENT REVENUE MANAGEMENT America West Airlines, based in Arizona has appointed Josef Loew as Vice President Revenue Management. Loew was most recently Senior Director of Yield Management. America West is a wholly owned subsidiary of America West Holdings Corporation which is registered in Delaware. Holdings Class B Common Stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under AWA. BRITISH AIRWAYS RELEASES PRE-TAX PROFITS British Airways unveiled pre-tax profits of £5 million for year ended 31 March 2000, against £225 million in 1999. Operating income was £84 million against £442 million in 1999. The airline points at the high fuel price and the strength of Sterling against the Euro as continuing issues. FINNAIR'S NEW PARTNERS Finnair, a member of Oneworld, has a new co-operation agreement with Air Littoral and TAP Air Portugal, both members of the Qualiflyer Group. The agreement with Air Littoral became effective on 26 March 2000, whilst the latter agreement with TAP, due to be implemented on 1 June 2000, is subject to regulatory approval. TRANS WORLD AIRLINES ELECTS TWO VICE PRESIDENTS Trans World Airlines has elected two new vice presidents, Rhonda Hamm-Niebruegge, formerly Managing Director, Airport Operations becomes Vice President, Airport Operations and Barbara King, formerly Director Reservations, becomes Vice President Reservations. USAIRWAYS AGREES TO COMBINE WITH UNITED AIRLINES US Airways Group announced 24 May 2000 that it's board have approved a definitive merger agreement whereby US Airways will be acquired by United in a transaction comprising $4.3 billion in cash plus the assumption of $1.5 billion in net debt and $5.8 billion in aircraft operating leases. Following the transaction, anticipated to be completed in 2001, US Airways will be merged into United Airlines, combining approximately 145,000 employees worldwide. The new network will connect US Airways eastern US markets with United's east-west and international networks, with United planning to serve all cities currently served by US Airways . In recognition of the competitive issues, both airlines have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Robert Johnson under which Mr Johnson would buy certain of US Airways' assets to create another airline to be called DC Air. The sale would include most of US Airways' assets and route structure to create a base of operations for the new carrier out of Washington Reagan. - ------------------------------ Jane's Urban Transport Systems 24 May 2000 - ------------------------------ Railtrack introduces MPVs to control weeds Railtrack is introducing Multi-Purpose Vehicles (MPVs) to control weeds, apply anti-skid Sandite coating and water-jet conditioning of track. It has set up the MOMCE contract (management, operation, maintenance and commercial exploitation) for weedspraying, Sandite laying and railhead conditioning (general cleaning of joints and rail top with Sandite and high-pressure water). The contract is with SERCO Railtest which carried out the weedspraying activities last year. It is planned to weedspray 29,600 km (18,500 miles) during 2000 with six MPVs. The MPVs have been built by Windhoff, Amec and Socofer and so far 12 have been handed over. The contract is for 25. Serco's primary role is that of management of the MPV fleet and ancillary vehicles, working with EWS who supply the drivers and operators. The role also includes maintenance of the MPV and supplementary fleet. Volvo articulated buses introduced in UK city Bradford (UK) bus operator, First Bradford has taken delivery of five articulated 18 m B7LA buses with Wrights Eclipse Fusion bodywork. Finished to First Group's specification and colours, the 144 passenger vehicle seats 56 and has on-board security cameras and TV monitor for the rear door. The vehicles will be introduced on the Allerton to Holmwood group of services which operate via Bradford Royal Infirmary hospital. This is part of an order for 40 articulated buses by First Group, which includes six for First Aberdeen, 18 for First Southampton and two for First Leeds. A further order from Dublin Bus has been received for 20. Trolleybuses for Hong Kong Hong Kong bus operator Citybus is to set up a trolleybus test site at its depot near the School of Motoring. A double-deck Dennis Dragon is to be converted into a trolleybus. Citybus says this conversion and work on the test track should begin soon, with the trial expected to begin before the end of 2000. Second Guided Busway for Leeds Work has started in Leeds, UK, on the East Leeds busway, part of the East Leeds Quality Bus Initiative. Two of the major West Yorkshire bus operators, First Leeds and Arriva Yorkshire are investing half of the total infrastructure cost plus that for vehicles in a partnership with the City Council and PTA. The East Leeds scheme includes 0.5 km of guideway on York Road, 0.3 km of guideway on Selby Road in-bound and 2.6 km of bus priority lane. Guideway is chosen where the narrower width is essential (bus lanes are wider) and where it is important to deter infringement (it is almost impossible to infringe a bus guideway). There will also be improvements to junction layouts and signalling arrangements to ensure buses have priority both on the corridor and on the wider networks. The Leeds Scot Hall Road scheme, has been very successful at attracting passengers. A survey there of that schemes, which includes a park and ride facility, shows that the Superbus services achieved a patronage growth of 75 per cent after two and a half years of operation. A similar scheme in Ipswich saw a 43 per cent growth after 16 months. In Bradford, work is starting in 2000 on a guided busway, to be completed in 2001, linking Odsal to the city centre via the Manchester Road. EU COMMISSION STOPS VOLVO'S ACQUISITION OF SCANIA The EU Commission has rejected Volvo's application for competition approval of Volvo's proposed acquisition of Scania. This means that Volvo is not able to complete the acquisition of Investor's Scania shares and the public offer to Scania's shareholders. Volvo's current holding in Scania, which amounts to 30.6 per cent of the votes and 45.5 per cent of the capital, is not affected directly by the EU Commission's decision. Volvo intends to retain this holding at this time. Volvo says that the companies will now evaluate whether other forms of future cooperation are possible. ALSTOM ACQUIRES LEADING DUTCH TRACTION EQUIPMENT SUPPLIER ALSTOM has announced its acquisition of the Dutch traction equipment company Traxis from the Royal Begemann Group, owners since 1989. Traxis designs and manufactures electric propulsion and electronic control systems for trains, metros and trams. The company, based in Ridderkerk, near Rotterdam, reports annual sales of 35 million Euros and employs over 200 people. Traxis is expected to significantly increase its order intake this year. ********************************************** BUSINESS ********************************************** - ---------------------------------------------- Jane's Defence Industry June 2000 - ---------------------------------------------- A target within visual range The contest for a new air-to-air missile for the Royal Air Force’s Eurofighter aircraft has lived up to forecasts that it would ‘go to the wire’. US pressure for selection of a Raytheon solution to the BVRAAM requirement reached unprecedented levels with high level representations spilling over into the letter columns of the newspapers. Jane's Defence Industry looks at the deal in more detail. HUNTING: A loss of appetite for the chase The decision of Hunting plc to place its defence business on the market should not have come as a surprise to the defence industry. Jane's Defence Industry looks at why. ==================================================================== For more information on any of the information listed in Jane's News Briefs, please contact your nearest Jane's office listed below: Jane's UK:info@janes.co.uk Jane's US:info@janes.com Jane's US West Coast:USWest@janes.com Jane's Singapore:janefish@mbox3.singnet.com.sg Jane's Australia:info@janes.thomson.com.au Visit Jane's at www.janes.com for additional contact details ===================================================================== If at any time you would like to unsubscribe from this mailing list, you can reply to this message replacing the body of the text with the following command: unsubscribe. ________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com ------------------------------ End of skunk-works-digest V9 #38 ******************************** To subscribe to skunk-works-digest, send the command: subscribe in the body of a message to "majordomo@netwrx1.com". 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